“War Is Almost Inevitable”; "The Logic of War"

“War Is Almost Inevitable”

by Jim Rickards

"All three major stock indexes were deep in the red yesterday, and volatility spiked for the first time in months as the war clouds gather over the Korean Peninsula. Here’s the latest tweet from President Trump:

Here’s another from two days ago, equally as subtle:

Stocks bounced back this morning after yesterday’s swoon, but that’s what we’ve all come to expect at this point. “Buying the dip” has been a successful strategy - until it isn’t. Markets still have not come to terms with the very real potential of a shooting war with North Korea over its nuclear program.

President Trump, Secretary of State Tillerson and Defense Secretary Mattis have all made it clear that a nuclear-armed North Korea with ICBMs that can hit the United States will not be allowed. If North Korea persists, this means war with the U.S. There’s only one problem: North Korea thinks we’re bluffing.

North Korea believes that the U.S. is bluffing based in part on the prior failures of the U.S. to back up “red line” declarations in Syria over its alleged use of chemical weapons. Their belief is also based on the horrendous damage that would be inflicted on South Korea.

China also believes the U.S. is bluffing. A major Chinese think tank analyst with government connections named Liu Ming says, “The military option the Americans are threatening won’t likely happen because the stakes will be too high. It’s a pretext and an excuse to pile up pressure on China. It’s more like blackmail than a realistic option.”

This is how wars begin: not because anyone wants a war, but because two sides misread each other’s intentions and stumble into one.

Make no mistake - Trump is not bluffing. He’s deadly serious about ending the threat from North Korea. And he has support within the national security community. Defense Secretary James Mattis added Wednesday that North Korea "should cease any consideration of actions that will lead to the end of the regime and destruction of its people."

Four-star Gen. Terrence J. O’Shaughnessy, commander of all air forces in the Pacific, said the U.S. would use “rapid, lethal and overwhelming force” against North Korea if necessary. This comes as North Korea has threatened to attack the American territory of Guam, which is home to several key U.S. naval and air installations.

Meanwhile, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley said, “The time for talk is over. The danger the North Korean regime poses is now clear to all.”

You can’t get much more explicit than that.

The American people and citizens around the world are being told in no uncertain terms that a war with North Korea is coming unless North Korea ends its nuclear program. Yet North Korea will not end its weapons program. They consider these weapons indispensable to the survival of the regime. Therefore, war is almost inevitable. Below, I show you how the “logic of war” is colliding with the illogic of bubbles. Which will win? Read on."

"The Logic of War"

By Jim Rickards

"This was the week that the logic of war collided with the illogic of bubbles. So far, the bubble is winning, but that’s about to change. The “logic of war” is an English translation of a French phrase, la logique de la guerre, which refers to the dynamic of how wars begin despite the fact that the war itself will be horrendous, counterproductive, and possibly end in complete defeat.

As applied to North Korea, the U.S. has made it clear that if it is forced into a preemptive attack to destroy North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missile programs, it will not stop there. The U.S. will aim to decapitate the regime and replace it with something more reasonable. This could be the start of a gradual reunification of the Korean peninsula on terms favorable to the U.S. In effect, we would be winners in the original Korean War fought from 1950 to 1953.

North Korea has made it equally clear that any attack by the U.S. will result in massive artillery and missile bombardment of South Korea, and possibly Japan and U.S. bases in the region. Even if North Korea has not yet produced nuclear armed missiles, it does have enormous conventional firepower and missiles. It could possibly detonate a nuclear “device” even if it does not yet have a miniaturized nuclear warhead.

The bottom line is that the U.S. and its allies will suffer enormous casualties and economic damage, China may find a pro-U.S. regime on its doorstep, and the North Korean regime will face annihilation.

Given these outcomes, “logic” says that war should be prevented. This would not be difficult to do. If North Korea verifiably stopped its weapons testing and engaged in some dialogue, the U.S. would meet the regime more than halfway with sanctions relief and some expanded trade and investment opportunities. The problem is that the logic of war proceeds differently than the logic of optimization. It relies on imperfect assessments of the intentions and capabilities of an adversary in an existential situation that offers little time to react.

North Korea believes that the U.S. is bluffing based in part on the prior failures of the U.S. to back up “red line” declarations in Syria, and based on the horrendous damage that would be inflicted upon America’s key ally, South Korea.

North Korea also looks at regimes like Libya and Iraq that gave up nuclear weapons programs and were overthrown. It looks at regimes like Iran that did not give up nuclear weapons programs and were not overthrown. It concludes that in dealing with the U.S., the best path is not to give up your nuclear weapons programs. That’s not entirely irrational given the history of U.S. foreign policy over the past thirty years.

But, the U.S. is not bluffing. Trump is not Obama, he does not use rhetoric for show, he means what he says. Trump’s cabinet officials, generals and admirals also mean what they say. No flag officer wants to lose an American city like Los Angeles on his or her watch. They won’t take even a small chance of letting that happen.

The Trump administration will end the North Korean threat now before the stakes are raised to the nuclear level. Despite the logic of diplomacy and negotiation, the war with North Korea is coming. That’s the logic of war. I hope I’m wrong, and there’s always a chance that peace may prevail. But all the current warnings and indications point to war."

- http://www.thedailyreckoning.com
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Related:

"Xi to Trump: N. Korea Crisis Must Have Peaceful Resolution, Show Restraint”

“While not publicly stating how it would proceed in the event of a US attack on Pyongyang, Beijing strongly hinted that it would oppose such actions. An editorial in the state-run outlet the Global Times, published by the Communist Party’s official People’s Daily, suggested that China would seek to prevent an attack on North Korea while remaining neutral if Pyongyang launched an attack.

“If North Korea launches missiles that threaten US soil first and the US retaliates, China will stay neutral,” the Global Times wrote. But should the US and its allies attempt to “overthrow the North Korean regime and change the political pattern of the Korean Peninsula,” Beijing would “prevent them from doing so,” it said.”

- https://www.rt.com/